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David Rockwell got this right--I didn't--spoiler--answer

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Thursday, 14 July 2016, at 1:01 a.m.

In Response To: David Rockwell got this right--I didn't (Dmitriy Obukhov)

I thought it was a pass as well. David took and of course, was punished by getting gammone. XGR++ said it was a big take, so I really thought I was way off on this one. But you can see the rollout below, which I just did after I saw Dmitriy's post that he was inclined to pass.

I guess I should have questioned xgr++ sooner!

Turns out it was a small pass after all.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 69
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 141
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBBCBB------------a-eceCA:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.54% (G:19.16% B:0.61%) 74.30% (G:19.24% B:0.63%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.46% (G:10.59% B:0.94%) 25.70% (G:10.61% B:0.89%)
Cubeless Equities +0.553 +1.139
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.775 (-0.225)±0.010 (+0.765..+0.785)
Redouble/Take:+1.026 (+0.026)±0.017 (+1.009..+1.043)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Search interval: Large
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:99.9%
Duration: 6 minutes 04 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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