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Rollout Results Posted, $, DMP, GG, GS

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Sunday, 17 July 2016, at 1:32 p.m.

In Response To: Another 53 (Paul Weaver)

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 146 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=----BbC-C---bD-b-c-fBA----:0:0:1:35:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 35 1. Rollout1 21/16 13/10 eq: -0.126 Player: Opponent: 46.42% (G:8.03% B:0.33%) 53.58% (G:9.92% B:0.27%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.139...-0.112) - [99.9%] Duration: 7 minutes 41 seconds 2. Rollout1 8/3 6/3 eq: -0.154 (-0.028) Player: Opponent: 45.97% (G:8.08% B:0.33%) 54.03% (G:9.44% B:0.23%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.166...-0.142) - [0.1%] Duration: 7 minutes 13 seconds 3. Rollout1 21/13 eq: -0.161 (-0.035) Player: Opponent: 45.33% (G:6.28% B:0.23%) 54.67% (G:7.36% B:0.16%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.171...-0.150) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 52 seconds 4. Rollout1 21/16 6/3 eq: -0.174 (-0.049) Player: Opponent: 45.21% (G:7.79% B:0.26%) 54.79% (G:9.03% B:0.32%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.187...-0.162) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 07 seconds 5. Rollout2 21/18 13/8 eq: -0.204 (-0.078) Player: Opponent: 44.38% (G:7.04% B:0.17%) 55.62% (G:8.25% B:0.21%) Conf.: ± 0.026 (-0.230...-0.177) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 01 second 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 172 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

The surprise winner of both the $ and DMP rollouts is the VTS (voluntary triple shot) play 21/16 13/10. Although I am claiming I at least saw the play, I admit I never gave it serious consideration. The position after Blue makes this play is shown below. Although White could hit with 28 numbers, he probably should NOT hit with 21 31 51 61 42 64 53 22. White should hit with only 13 numbers: 11 41 43 44 54 51 55 65. Volunteering 13 shots is not as big a deal as volunteering 28. White is stripped on all three points from which he can hit: 20pt, 13pt, 10pt. This means White has to give up a point to hit, unless he hits with a double. Admittedly, the three double hits 51 54 65 are costly, but Blue gains a lot if he can cover his 10pt. Blue is down in the race and White has a one-point board with a stacked 6pt. Blue can easily survive a hit, even a double hit. White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 146 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 155 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=----BbC-C-A-bC-bAc-fB-----:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 White on roll, cube action? Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 53.95% (G:9.71% B:0.29%) 54.06% (G:9.15% B:0.26%) Opponent Winning Chances: 46.05% (G:7.84% B:0.28%) 45.94% (G:7.61% B:0.25%) Cubeless Equities +0.098 +0.193 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.144 Double/Beaver: -0.282 (-0.426) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.856) Best Cube action: No double / Beaver Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 24.9% eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

White is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 146 2 point match Crawford pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=----BbC-C---bD-b-c-fBA----:0:0:1:35:0:1:1:2:10 Blue to play 35 1. Rollout1 8/3 6/3 eq: +0.088 Player: Opponent: 46.48% (G:7.90% B:0.44%) 53.52% (G:13.40% B:0.58%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.085...+0.091) - [99.8%] Duration: 23 minutes 42 seconds 2. Rollout2 21/16 13/10 eq: +0.081 (-0.007) Player: Opponent: 46.67% (G:7.38% B:0.41%) 53.33% (G:12.47% B:0.66%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.078...+0.084) - [0.2%] Duration: 26 minutes 01 second 3. 4-ply 13/10 8/3 eq: +0.056 (-0.032) Player: Opponent: 44.79% (G:8.02% B:0.25%) 55.21% (G:10.67% B:0.33%) 4. 4-ply 21/16 6/3 eq: +0.038 (-0.049) Player: Opponent: 45.52% (G:6.41% B:0.20%) 54.48% (G:8.65% B:0.28%) 1 5794 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 5791 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 146 2 point match Crawford pip: 163 score: 1 Blue is Player 1 XGID=----BbC-C---bD-b-c-fBA----:0:0:1:35:1:0:1:2:10 Blue to play 35 1. Rollout1 21/13 eq: -0.221 Player: Opponent: 44.44% (G:6.04% B:0.55%) 55.56% (G:5.47% B:0.26%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.223...-0.218) - [100.0%] Duration: 22 minutes 49 seconds 2. Rollout1 8/3 6/3 eq: -0.255 (-0.034) Player: Opponent: 45.01% (G:8.53% B:0.90%) 54.99% (G:7.75% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.258...-0.252) - [0.0%] Duration: 21 minutes 50 seconds 3. Rollout1 21/18 13/8 eq: -0.258 (-0.037) Player: Opponent: 43.61% (G:7.05% B:0.47%) 56.39% (G:6.50% B:0.30%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.261...-0.255) - [0.0%] Duration: 22 minutes 35 seconds 4. Rollout2 21/16 13/10 eq: -0.260 (-0.039) Player: Opponent: 45.59% (G:10.25% B:1.14%) 54.41% (G:8.59% B:0.96%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.273...-0.247) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 13 seconds 1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 229 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 146 1 point match pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=----BbC-C---bD-b-c-fBA----:0:0:1:35:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 35

1.	Rollout1	21/16 13/10	eq: -0.068
	Player: Opponent: 46.62% (G:8.12% B:0.55%) 53.38% (G:13.35% B:0.90%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.073...-0.062) - [99.8%] Duration: 6 minutes 54 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/3 6/3	eq: -0.078 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 46.09% (G:9.21% B:1.10%) 53.91% (G:13.09% B:0.61%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.083...-0.073) - [0.2%] Duration: 6 minutes 09 seconds
3.	Rollout1	21/13	eq: -0.094 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 45.29% (G:7.05% B:0.43%) 54.71% (G:9.39% B:0.39%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.099...-0.090) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 09 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Another 53
  Paul Weaver -- Saturday, 16 July 2016, at 6:46 a.m.
  • Another 53
    Karol Szczerek -- Saturday, 16 July 2016, at 7:43 a.m.
  • Another 53
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 16 July 2016, at 8:42 p.m.
  • Another 53
    John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 17 July 2016, at 10:09 a.m.
  • Rollout Results Posted, $, DMP, GG, GS
    Paul Weaver -- Sunday, 17 July 2016, at 1:32 p.m.
    • Rollout Results Posted, $, DMP, GG, GS
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 17 July 2016, at 9:43 p.m.