Original position
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 111 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 104
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-bB-BCB-BA--bBA----babbbb-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
1. | Rollout1 | 13/7 9/7 | eq: +0,681 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 80,07% (G:17,48% B:1,29%)
19,93% (G:4,85% B:0,05%) | Conf.: ± 0,008 (+0,673...+0,689) - [100,0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 32 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/3 5/3 | eq: +0,622 (-0,059) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 77,64% (G:16,79% B:1,31%)
22,36% (G:4,51% B:0,02%) | Conf.: ± 0,006 (+0,615...+0,628) - [0,0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 35 seconds |
|
| |
1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release
Opp's 5pt blot does matter here. He shouldn't lift it with most hits to have a chance to close us out and gain some time. Killing it would limit his already slight chances to contain our blots way too far.
Therefore this blot represents additional risk for him.
Variant A - opp's 5pt blot moved back few pips.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 116 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 104
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-bB-BCB-BA--bBAa---b-bbbb-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
1. | Rollout1 | 13/7 9/7 | eq: +0,631 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 79,20% (G:15,39% B:0,98%)
20,80% (G:5,22% B:0,06%) | Conf.: ± 0,005 (+0,626...+0,635) - [100,0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 30 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/3 5/3 | eq: +0,619 (-0,012) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 78,45% (G:14,49% B:0,74%)
21,55% (G:3,91% B:0,05%) | Conf.: ± 0,004 (+0,615...+0,623) - [0,0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 00 second |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release
Removing a direct threat of our retaliation from the roof in case of him hitting us, makes the choice really close. If we put his 5pt blot on any of the points from 6 to 10, the decision is similarly close (per XGR++).
Variant B - opp's 5pt gap switched to 1pt
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 115 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 104
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-bB-BCB-BA--bBA----bbbbba-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 9/3 5/3 | eq: +0,596 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 76,82% (G:16,88% B:1,37%)
23,18% (G:4,32% B:0,05%) | Conf.: ± 0,008 (+0,588...+0,604) - [100,0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 26 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/7 9/7 | eq: +0,539 (-0,058) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 75,10% (G:16,55% B:1,17%)
24,90% (G:6,48% B:0,14%) | Conf.: ± 0,012 (+0,527...+0,550) - [0,0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 34 seconds |
|
| |
1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release
Giving opp chances to counter-prime on the side of attacking, makes the double-exposing play too risky.