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RO info

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 30 July 2016, at 3:40 a.m.

In Response To: RO info (Bob Koca)

Splitting now results in Blue hitting 110/1296 after which you will often force White to leave another blot. If you hit two and close them out, you'll be ~80% to win the game. If you only close out 1 checker, your winning chances will be about 17%.

If you don't split off the 24 now, most of your wins occur when White rolls back to back consecutive single aces which is 100/1296. You then only hit 55% of these and then only win about half from there. You will also get a direct shot at White's 15th checker if White's next 2 rolls are "takes 2 off and single ace" or "single ace and takes 2 off." You'll hit 30% of these 400/1296 and then win 7% - 8% of these.

So these rollout results seem correct to me.

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