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At DMP vs 4 on two. Go for Coup?

Posted By: Robert Wachtel
Date: Sunday, 31 July 2016, at 8:50 p.m.

In Response To: At DMP vs 4 on two. Go for Coup? (Timothy Chow)

No, I was not able to cover dmp and match-score situations in my book.

But I did do some research on this problem -- whether there are any situations where it might be right to hold the 24 point when the opponent has four on the deuce.

It seems that at dmp it is still clearly right to break the 24 pt when you have an outside prime, because you retain good chances of picking up a second checker in the fulness of time. With a closed board, however, you cannot catch a second checker unless you go for the coup classique. In that case this rollout at least suggests that staying or going is a tossup -- too close to call.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 8
1 point match
pip: 108
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBB-----------A----dB-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 32

1.Rollout118/13eq: -0.947
Player:
Opponent:		2.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.34% (G:86.22% B:75.28%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.949...-0.945) - [70.6%]
Duration: 10 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout124/22 18/15eq: -0.948 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		2.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.38% (G:88.81% B:68.24%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.950...-0.945) - [29.4%]
Duration: 25 minutes 04 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24311032
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 2-ply
Remaining moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Gigantic

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 8
1 point match
pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----BBBBBB--------A----dB-:0:0:1:23:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 23

1.Rollout124/21 18/16eq: -0.908
Player:
Opponent:		4.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
95.38% (G:91.72% B:62.81%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.912...-0.903) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
2.Rollout118/16 7/4eq: -0.942 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:		2.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.12% (G:90.36% B:79.07%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.945...-0.939) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24311032
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 2-ply
Remaining moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Gigantic

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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