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How well does your favorite race formula work on this position?

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Monday, 1 August 2016, at 2:12 a.m.

In Response To: How well does your favorite race formula work on this position? (Timothy Chow)

First you need to know the takepoint on a recube to four at 3a 7a. I don't know that and don't know how to calculate it in my head otb.

But I can apply my usual race formula:

Subtract 1 pip for the additional homeboard point in blues board, add 1 pip for the two checkers outside white's homeboard and you get 58-75, or a 17 pip lead lead for blue.

Apply the race formula: (pipcount - 5) /7 = 53/7 (round down) == 7 for the point of last take. Since white is down by 17, it's a massive drop at any normal score. But white has HUGE recube vig so I would imagine that white is taking just about anything here. A two percentage points per pip, the POLT for a ~22% normal score turns into a drop at any score where the takepoint is more than 2%, but I don't think one can apply that by rote here.

My gut is that white is taking this one, and since blue doesn't get full value out of the cube it's not worth doubling. A win gets blue to Crawford and pushing the cube makes a recube for the match likely.

I'm tempted to push it and make it white's problem, but I'd hold and see what the next sequence brings. As white, I'd take and look to rewhip.

ND/T

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