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How well does your favorite race formula work on this position?

Posted By: Sean Garber
Date: Monday, 1 August 2016, at 3:09 a.m.

In Response To: How well does your favorite race formula work on this position? (Timothy Chow)

The Kleinman formula is too much math for me OTB, so this is how I would approach this. Unlike JOH, I would add 3 pips to blue for the extras on the ace and deuce points, making the adjusted pip count 62-74. Blue is on roll & 20% up in the race. With efficient races for both sides in a 60+ pip race, this should give blue about 84%. Anytime we do adjustments my system is less trustworthy, but I am surprised it is that far off JOH's 88% number. Big no double/Take.

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