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How well does your favorite race formula work on this position?

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Monday, 1 August 2016, at 3:35 a.m.

In Response To: How well does your favorite race formula work on this position? (Timothy Chow)

The take point is ca. 9%.

I'd use Robertie's Rule of 65 here, adjusting the leader by +2-3pips for wastage.

The lead is 12-13/61, or ca. 21%.
The leader has 65 + 21 = 86%.

Since the race length is a bit short for the Rule (leader should be at at least 80 pips or so), I'd scale the trailer's chances down by something like 10%.

So 14% x .9 = ca. 12.5%

I'd check with Keith Count too, which I typically use (with some slight adjustments) for races. The leader is 62 + 8 + 1 = 71 vs 74, so 3 down (if the race is not short, and leader's pip count is only 1 shy from the next multiplicity of 7, as here - 62 is 1 shy from 63, which is 7x9 - I typically adjust by adding +1 to the final count).

If he was 2 up, the trailer would have ca. 21% (just below take point for money). Counting 2% per pip gives 21 - 10 = 11%.

So I'd take 11-12% for the decision.

Seems to be too far away from trailer's take point to put a match on the line. I'd double this if he was much closer, say ca. 10%.

ND / T

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