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How well does your favorite race formula work on this position?

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Monday, 1 August 2016, at 3:59 a.m.

In Response To: How well does your favorite race formula work on this position? (Timothy Chow)

The short answer is, "Not very well."

That's because the Isight Method only works in an unlimited game (i.e., a money game). It does not include any adjustments for match score.

The only formula I am aware of that handles this is Kleinman's racing formula. It produces an estimated winning percentage that can then be used in MET calculations.

Over the board, I might treat this as a no-double/take. Blue's racing lead is comprised of three things: 1. a 15-pip lead before he rolls, 2. whatever additional pips he rolls, and 3. the two extra crossovers that White needs. White can almost make that up by rolling one big set.

If Blue cubes and White then takes and auto-recubes, Blue will be playing this for the match. I don't think Blue has a big-enough racing lead to risk playing this for the match.

(spoiler:) If Blue simply wins the game with the cube on 2, he will be the leader at 7-away, 1-away, Crawford. According to XG's MET, Blue's match-winning chances would be 91%.

Is Blue's game-winning chance better than that here? My guess is no.

Mike

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