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How well does your favorite race formula work on this position?

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Monday, 1 August 2016, at 3:52 p.m.

In Response To: How well does your favorite race formula work on this position? (ah_clem)

First you need to know the takepoint on a recube to four at 3a 7a. I don't know that and don't know how to calculate it in my head otb.

I posted this late last night and wasn't thinking. Takepoints are easy in this situation since the auto-recube after a take means that the game is for the match, so the takepoint is just the MWC for the score after a drop,

7A Crawford is about 9%, so that's the takepoint here.

Sure looks to me like white has that and it's not close enough for blue to ship it.

That said, my method of going from the Trice count point-of-last-take to an AtS take decision (i.e. two percentage points per pip) doesn't seem to work. Maybe I've got it wrong? This positions doesn't seem to be too outre.

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