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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 3 August 2016, at 9:45 p.m.

In Response To: How well does your favorite race formula work on this position? (Timothy Chow)

The part I had trouble with was deciding whether to redouble. I thought it was close enough, but the rollout disagrees. It's interesting to me that JOH thinks that Blue needs 90% to have a redouble. That is much closer to the takepoint than I would have guessed.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 74
7 point match
pip: 59
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBACDC----------aadccba--:1:1:1:00:4:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 88.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 88.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 11.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 11.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.769 +1.271
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.886±0.001 (+0.884..+0.887)
Redouble/Take:+0.826 (-0.060)±0.000 (+0.826..+0.826)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.114)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 25.6%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 48 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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