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Apropos Keene's recent post...

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Thursday, 4 August 2016, at 2:27 a.m.

In Response To: Apropos Keene's recent post... (Timothy Chow)

After passive 9/6, I think we would be in the neighbourhood of a close take for money. Opp's gammons seem certainly high, in the department of close to 1/2 of his wins. Our gammons seem lower, but still a good chunk, maybe about 1/3 of our wins. This leads me to an estimation of win/gammon ratios of opp's 65/30% vs ours 35/10%.

After banana split of 4/1* plus fan I feel we have close to a cash, so I'd count it as almost 25% wins, say 23%. After opp's enters, we're probably down to 20-25% department, so .75 x 20-25% = 15-18%. Summing our wins gives close to 40% figure.

I think we will loose slightly too much gammons after the 4/1* desperate hit to make the additional ca. 5% wins worth it.

B/20 9/6.

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