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A propos Keene's recent post... #2 - RO

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Monday, 8 August 2016, at 9:31 p.m.

In Response To: A propos Keene's recent post... #2 (Karol Szczerek)

Verdict: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7FIvfx5J10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 133
Unlimited Game
pip: 137
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-BCBB-C---c-a--bacbb--BA:1:1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 51

1.xgRollout1Bar/24 6/1* eq: -0,715
Player:
Opponent:		23,28% (G:10,02% B:0,33%)
76,72% (G:33,21% B:3,61%)		Conf.: ± 0,011 (-0,726...-0,704) - [100,0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 48 seconds
2.playedRollout1Bar/24 8/3eq: -0,843 (-0,128)
Player:
Opponent:		17,77% (G:5,01% B:0,14%)
82,23% (G:28,76% B:2,26%)		Conf.: ± 0,010 (-0,853...-0,833) - [0,0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 08 seconds
1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

It's the right way to max out our chances. If opp dances, which happens 25% of the time, we have splitting 1s, covering 2s, 3s and 5s, escaping 6s, so we're set to go forward. His 4 more numbers, that enters, but doesn't hit nor build (32 and 52) are also not powerful enough to kick us into the coffin yet, as we will play 3pt vs 3pt board with some attacking options.

Acc. to XG's dice distribution feature (4-ply), the dances put him on -.060 equity. The 32 and 52 on about +.500. Other rolls are of course killers, ranging from +.910 to +1.240.

If we play passive, he makes the 5-prime with 27 rolls, and switches 8pt to 7pt with 2 rolls more (a 21). He fizzles with only 7 rolls (32, 52, 53 and 55), but they are all still better outcomes than dances after the Van Damme.

Acc. to XG's dice distribution feature (4-ply), the 7 fizzles yields him an equity of +.200 to +.340. The switch (a 21) yields +.680. The other rolls (27 killers) an equity of +.960 to +1.080.

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