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Is a .09 cube error "huge"?-- *Spoilers*

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 15 August 2016, at 10:49 p.m.

In Response To: Is a .09 cube error "huge"?-- *Spoilers* (Albert Steg)

Albert wrote:

Matt acknowledges that in the long run, equity is equity, yet he feels that the cube error in this position isn’t so severe or substantial compared to a checker play error of the same magnitude.

As I've mentioned frequently before, one thing that people tend to forget is that the "equities" reported by the bots are normalized to the cube value. So a "0.09" checker-play error really costs you 0.18 if the cube is on 2.

The cube often gets to 2 in a game but it gets to 4 significantly less often. So one could make the following hand-wavy argument. Consider a "0.09" checker-play error C and a "0.09" doubling error D. Assume for the moment that the cube never gets to 4. Then whenever you commit D, you're really losing 0.09, but when you commit C, some of the time the cube is on 1 and some of the time the cube is on 2, so on average you're losing more than 0.09 each time you commit C.

Of course the cube does sometimes get to 4, but I think that it will still be true that you'll lose more equity on average from C than from D.

Messages In This Thread

• MCG on first Backgammon Video Podcast--link below
  Phil Simborg -- Monday, 15 August 2016, at 2:03 a.m.
  • MCG on first Backgammon Video Podcast--link below
    Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 15 August 2016, at 1:10 p.m.
  • The 65 play (25:37) - *Spoilers*
    Albert Steg -- Monday, 15 August 2016, at 4:35 p.m.
    • The 65 play (25:37) - *Spoilers*
      Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 15 August 2016, at 4:47 p.m.
  • Feedback
    TraumaBG -- Monday, 15 August 2016, at 5:49 p.m.
    • Feedback
      Phil Simborg -- Monday, 15 August 2016, at 7:09 p.m.
      • Feedback
        Taper_Mike -- Monday, 15 August 2016, at 8:41 p.m.
    • Feedback
      TraumaBG -- Monday, 15 August 2016, at 8:39 p.m.
  • Is a .09 cube error "huge"?-- *Spoilers*
    Albert Steg -- Monday, 15 August 2016, at 9:35 p.m.
    • Is a .09 cube error "huge"?-- *Spoilers*
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 15 August 2016, at 10:49 p.m.
    • Is a .09 cube error "huge"?-- *Spoilers*
      Dmitriy Obukhov -- Tuesday, 16 August 2016, at 2:34 a.m.
      • Is a .09 cube error "huge"?-- *Spoilers*
        Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 16 August 2016, at 8:27 a.m.
        • Is a .09 cube error "huge"?-- *Spoilers*
          Albert Steg -- Tuesday, 16 August 2016, at 8:50 a.m.
        • Is a .09 cube error "huge"?-- *Spoilers*
          Dmitriy Obukhov -- Tuesday, 16 August 2016, at 9:12 a.m.
          • Is a .09 cube error "huge"?-- *Spoilers*
            Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 16 August 2016, at 9:27 a.m.
            • Is a .09 cube error "huge"?-- *Spoilers*
              Dmitriy Obukhov -- Tuesday, 16 August 2016, at 3:22 p.m.
              • Is a .09 cube error "huge"?-- *Spoilers*
                Albert Steg -- Tuesday, 16 August 2016, at 3:50 p.m.
                • Is a .09 cube error "huge"?-- *Spoilers*
                  Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 16 August 2016, at 4:16 p.m.
                  • Is a .09 cube error "huge"?-- *Spoilers*
                    Albert Steg -- Tuesday, 16 August 2016, at 4:42 p.m.
                    • Is a .09 cube error "huge"?-- *Spoilers*
                      Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 16 August 2016, at 7:43 p.m.
              • Is a .09 cube error "huge"?-- *Spoilers*
                Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 16 August 2016, at 5:35 p.m.