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Giving Up Equity to Get More Back

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Tuesday, 16 August 2016, at 10:03 a.m.

In Response To: Giving Up Equity to Get More Back (Albert Steg)

so does this mean I lose out on a net .011 in equity every time I try to exploit his weakness, over-matching it by a bigger blunder of my own?

This is basically correct, even though the details of your analysis are flawed. First, in the cases where he rolls a non-double 1, his take error will be larger. But much more importantly, you also have to consider that the opportunity for his later cube error only arises with a probability of 25/36.

Bottom line: Your own error is justifiable, when it leads, on average, to a larger error by the opponent. Holding the cube in the situation you describe sounds like quite a bad idea to me.

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