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Two Checkers to Contain

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Monday, 22 August 2016, at 7:02 p.m.

In Response To: Two Checkers to Contain (Neil Robins)

a. cube

I know that with that number off for the opp, we got:

93% after closing out both checkers

58 - 66% after closing out one checker (58% for secured blot, abour +5% for blot on the low points and about +8% for blot on the high points)
I'd call it half-way: 62%

My guess is that we close out both guys quite often here. Opp's got no board, which cuts down on our weak rolls greatly. We can recirculate, banana-split, and do other crazy stuff for pretty low risk of an anti-joker sequence. I'd say 75% of the time we get both of them instead of one. That gives about 85% wins (93 minus 1/4 of the distance between both scenarios).

I'd also adjust for opp's killing jokers. I think usually 1-3 times along the way on our containment route, opp will have a 1-2 big doubles as potential jokers. When he anchors up, he can jump both guys far into the outfield, so he will be probably in the 2/3 wins neighborhood (not gin, as we will probably keep some blots far behind to catch him then). If he doesn't anchor up, he will often have a chance to joker-run one of his checkers to safety or almost there. With one back he will have ca. 40% wins. I'd guess the jokers with an anchor happen less frequently, but are stronger, so maybe avg of 2 jokers for 67% wins or 3 jokers for 40% wins, which is about the same, so about 3% bonus.

That leaves 82% wins for us.

His take point is 7 / (33+7) = 17,5%.

Looks like a close call for take/pass decision.

Being so close to the take point, the double is obligatory, as there are enough market losers in above-average sequences.

b. play

I'd guard against big doubles as they threat to secure one of his checkers.

I like making the 16pt. vs 44 and 66, but that leaves a scary 55.

Alternative seems to be pointing on the ace. It leaves nothing great, but the threat is small 4s. He anchors up and can roll a big double next turn. But then again we can try to block those later.

I don't really like focusing on priming vs 2 blots too much because of anchor possibilities, so I go with the aggresive 7/1* 6/1.

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