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Rollouts

Posted By: Neil Robins
Date: Tuesday, 23 August 2016, at 8:02 p.m.

In Response To: Two Checkers to Contain (Neil Robins)





White is Neil

score: 3
pip: 51
5 point match
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is XG-Champion
XGID=-F-aa-aa----b-----bcbAb-A-:0:0:-1:00:3:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 80.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 80.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.82% (G:6.64% B:0.55%) 19.31% (G:6.99% B:0.49%)
Cubeless Equities +0.482 +0.909
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.890 (-0.019)±0.006 (+0.885..+0.896)
Double/Take:+0.909±0.006 (+0.903..+0.916)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.091)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71284
First 2 moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 21 minutes 10 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Stronger play.





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 51
5 point match
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-F-aa-aa----b-----bcbAb-A-:0:0:-1:00:3:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 81.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 81.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 18.96% (G:6.55% B:0.63%) 18.43% (G:6.44% B:0.46%)
Cubeless Equities +0.501 +0.950
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.928 (-0.022)±0.008 (+0.920..+0.936)
Double/Take:+0.950±0.009 (+0.942..+0.959)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.050)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71284
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 hours 14 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Weaker play.





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 51
5 point match
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-F-aa-aa----b-----bcbAb-A-:0:0:-1:00:3:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 75.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.01% (G:9.96% B:0.70%) 24.35% (G:10.43% B:0.66%)
Cubeless Equities +0.338 +0.676
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.698±0.007 (+0.691..+0.705)
Double/Take:+0.676 (-0.022)±0.007 (+0.670..+0.683)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.302)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6.3%
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71284
Moves and cube decisions: 1-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 24 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Only one reasonable play which in both positions XG 3-ply thinks is slightly best if you analyse it but lies outside its scope of even gigantic search interval.





White is Neil

score: 3
pip: 51
5 point match
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is XG-Champion
XGID=-F-aa-aa----b-----bcbAb-A-:0:0:-1:65:3:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 65
1.Rollout17/1* 6/1eq: +0.945
Player:
Opponent:
81.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
18.61% (G:7.79% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.937...+0.953) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 14 seconds
2.Rollout121/15 19/14eq: +0.855 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent:
79.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
20.87% (G:7.14% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.847...+0.863) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 07 seconds
3.playedRollout122/16 21/16eq: +0.854 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent:
79.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
20.78% (G:7.11% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.846...+0.862) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 53 seconds
4.xgRollout122/16 19/14eq: +0.847 (-0.098)
Player:
Opponent:
78.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
21.04% (G:7.09% B:0.56%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.839...+0.854) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 21 seconds
5.Rollout119/14 13/7eq: +0.836 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent:
78.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
21.21% (G:7.48% B:0.74%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.828...+0.844) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 05 seconds
6.Rollout119/14 18/12eq: +0.831 (-0.114)
Player:
Opponent:
78.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
21.39% (G:7.34% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.824...+0.838) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 56 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71284
First 2 moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

With cube turned.





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 51
5 point match
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-F-aa-aa----b-----bcbAb-A-:1:1:-1:65:3:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 65
1.Rollout17/1* 6/1eq: +0.634
Player:
Opponent:
81.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
18.32% (G:7.89% B:0.68%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.629...+0.639) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 27 seconds
2.Rollout122/16 21/16eq: +0.590 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
79.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
20.49% (G:7.45% B:0.36%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.585...+0.595) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 39 seconds
3.xgRollout122/16 19/14eq: +0.584 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
79.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
20.82% (G:7.59% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.579...+0.588) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 39 seconds
4.Rollout121/15 19/14eq: +0.582 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
79.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
20.90% (G:7.64% B:0.62%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.577...+0.587) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 34 seconds
5.Rollout119/14 13/7eq: +0.579 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
78.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
21.06% (G:7.68% B:0.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.574...+0.584) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds
6.Rollout119/14 18/12eq: +0.578 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
78.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
21.11% (G:7.64% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.573...+0.583) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds
7.Rollout113/8 7/1* eq: +0.541 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:
77.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
22.94% (G:10.52% B:1.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.535...+0.548) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 28 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71284
First 2 moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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