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Rollout surprise!

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 1 September 2016, at 11:02 p.m.

In Response To: The score is 4a4a, so...? (Timothy Chow)

Maybe stronger settings will turn this into a take but I was amazed that it was even close to a pass.





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 154
7 point match
pip: 155
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--BBB-B---dE---b-e-bB---:0:0:1:00:3:3:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.45% (G:21.08% B:1.31%) 67.01% (G:21.64% B:2.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.55% (G:7.80% B:0.45%) 32.99% (G:8.92% B:1.12%)
Cubeless Equities +0.527 +1.392
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.843 (-0.157)±0.015 (+0.829..+0.858)
Double/Take:+1.029 (+0.029)±0.026 (+1.002..+1.055)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:98.4%
Duration: 33 minutes 25 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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