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Race double AtS - RO

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Sunday, 11 September 2016, at 8:15 p.m.

In Response To: Race double AtS (Karol Szczerek)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 71
5 point match
pip: 83
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BABBAC--C-----Aab-d-cbab-:0:0:-1:D:2:0:0:5:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 84,02% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 84,00% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 15,98% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 16,00% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Cubeless Equities +0,680 +1,195
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,927 (-0,073)±0,002 (+0,925..+0,929)
Double/Take:+1,150 (+0,150)±0,003 (+1,147..+1,153)
Double/Pass:+1,000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 2 minutes 41 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

The main surprise to me was that we win only 16% here. Robertie's rule of 65, Isight, and Kleinman all give 18%.

Our 16pt. stack is part of an answer. If we split it into 3 adjacent points (diagram below), we win considerably more, but still "only" 16.73%.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 71
5 point match
pip: 83
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BABBAC-AAA----Aab-d-cbab-:0:0:-1:D:2:0:0:5:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 83,27% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 83,22% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 16,73% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 16,78% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Cubeless Equities +0,665 +1,165
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,910 (-0,090)±0,002 (+0,908..+0,912)
Double/Take:+1,113 (+0,113)±0,003 (+1,110..+1,115)
Double/Pass:+1,000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 2 minutes 38 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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