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BGonline.org Forums
Rollout Results, Original + Variation
Posted By: Taper_Mike In Response To: Rollout Results, Original + Variation (Paul Weaver)
Date: Sunday, 2 October 2016, at 8:26 p.m.
Most players automatically rip off two checkers in this sort of position. Down by a ton, they figure they have to take 'em off as fast as possible. And that's true, as far as it goes.
There is, however, another factor. Blue needs White to dance if he is going to have any realistic chances. Blue gets more wins when White dances than he does when White hits him, and he hits back. That's why holding your board as long as possible is key. White dances 25% of the time on a three-point board. Much less, on a two-point board (8%).
In both of these positions, Blue has ten checkers remaining. Ripping off two (4/off, 3/off) keeps Blue on pace to be off in five rolls. Ripping off one (4/3, 4/1) adds an extra roll. White, meanwhile, might use three or four rolls to run a single checker around the board, and take it off. When White has two additional checkers on his 1pt, he will need an additional roll.
Evidently, that extra roll makes all the difference. If Blue rips off only one checker in the second position above, he will usually need White to dance twice if he is going to win. He will need White to dance, first of all, on a three-point board, and, afterwards, on a two-point board. He does better, by simply ripping off two immediately, and then hoping that White dances on the resulting two-point board. He will also have some vig, when White hits.
When White has two checkers on his 1pt, as in the first position, Blue can win when White dances only once. The best way to accomplish that is to hold the board.
If I encountered these over the board, I have no doubt that I would rip two in the second position. Whether I would do the same thing in the first position, I can't say. Sometimes I would, and sometimes I wouldn't.
Mike
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