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Do you know your backgammon values?

Posted By: Sean Garber
Date: Tuesday, 4 October 2016, at 12:39 a.m.

In Response To: Do you know your backgammon values? (Timothy Chow)

If we stay and get bged, which would happen 11% of the time we stayed, we lose 40% match equity. If we hit the shot, which happens about 17% of the time that we stay, we will gain either 17% match equity or 49% match equity, depending on whether we win or just save the gammon. Using OTB type rounding off, we need about 67% match equity after a hit to make it worth staying, which means that we have to win the game about 31% of the time after a hit to make it worth staying. We win about 68% if we can close out 2 checkers. It looks like we need to be able to close out 2 checkers at least 45% of the time after a hit to make staying worth it. We have a good bit of time to pick up the second checker after a hit. I like our chances. 16/11 12/6 is my play.

Also, after a hit, this turns into one of those contain with blots strewn about the board positions. 3-ply rollouts may not be a strong enough setting.

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