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61 after 43S - hit or not ot hit?

Posted By: aoleg1
Date: Sunday, 11 May 2008, at 8:15 a.m.

In Response To: 61 after 43S - hit or not ot hit? (David Rockwell)

I disagree that tactics is a main point here. After 43S 61H the opponent has 35 hitting numbers (6 double hits), and 1 fanning number. Moreover 18 numbers send third checker back and you are an underdog (equity around –0.2 or –0/3). After 43S 61P the opponent has no hitting numbers, 17 numbers which makes an inner or a bar point, 11 numbers (all fourth except 6-4 and 3-1) which makes 20 pt, 4 numbers which makes 10 pt, and 4 running number (no bad numbers and when opponent makes 20 pt your equity is around -0.3). In any case after 61P you have a point and the opponent has a point, after 61H nobody has nothing and you are only fighting for the 5 and 18 points. How to compare hitting and pointing? I don’t know but I know a strong expert in tactics – GNU. This expert said (4-ply evaluation) that after 61P your equity is –0.112 and after 61H is-.137. From tactic point of view 61P is better. (If you feel better than the opponent in the chaos after 61H then hit! If not, I don’t know the answer.)

So we need some strategic considerations. I only can note that 1) After 61H the game can be long so the strong reply of the opponent is not so big as it seems. 2) After 61P and opponents pointing on 20 pt you are slowly die and the opponent can have a very efficient cube.

Is this sufficient to prefer 61H?

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