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BGonline.org Forums
61 after 43S - hit or not ot hit?
Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier In Response To: 61 after 43S - hit or not ot hit? (aoleg1)
Date: Sunday, 11 May 2008, at 6:14 p.m.
I also agree with Peter and David and believe the rollouts.
So we need some strategic considerations. I only can note that 1) After 61H the game can be long so the strong reply of the opponent is not so big as it seems. 2) After 61P and opponents pointing on 20 pt you are slowly die and the opponent can have a very efficient cube.
Is this sufficient to prefer 61H?
The same could be said for 54/61, so why should it be any different for 43/61?
In any case after 61P you have a point and the opponent has a point, after 61H nobody has nothing and you are only fighting for the 5 and 18 points.
Your opponent doesn't have any points, yet. Getting hit is not that bad with no made points anywhere on the board. Fighting for the 5 and 18 points is better in this case than making a consolation point (the bar is not going to be all that special if White isn't on the ace point). Giving your opponent free reign to play with his 10 point builder is enough to swing an otherwise close decision. Also, in addition to not being able to make a point with it, he also has to contend with return shots at it next roll.
How to compare hitting and pointing? I don’t know but I know a strong expert in tactics – GNU. This expert said (4-ply evaluation) that after 61P your equity is –0.112 and after 61H is-.137.
A GNU rollout (Stick's site) claims that after 61H your equity is -.1359 and after 61P your equity is -.1530. Are you claiming that 4-ply is a better evaluation than a 15k rollout on 2-ply?
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