First, here is the original position both using normal settings (3ply/XGR) and then obnoxious settings (++/++ large search interval). I used the same seed for both and as you can see the difference is negligible. This means for the rest of the rollouts I won't waste the time with the higher settings and trust that 3ply/XGR is good enough. I really didn't agree with the case for XG not knowing how to go after a 3rd or 4th checker any way. First the opponent has to anchor instead of being closed out, then the opponent has to break with an ace (and not double aces) before rolling a six, then we have to somehow have some decision to make(???) where the bot would mess up from a position where we already have our home board filled in and the only point we can slot, which I'm sure the bot will do, is the bar point. Then the opponent needs to roll something breaking before rolling another ace which cleans up his position anyway. It's crazy talk.
++/++ large
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| XGID=aaBBBBB-A--A--------AA-bA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 74.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 74.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 25.47% (G:1.70% B:0.42%) | 25.40% (G:1.67% B:0.35%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.469 | +0.944 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.852 | ±0.016 (+0.836..+0.867) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.783 (-0.068) | ±0.026 (+0.757..+0.809) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.148) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 24.0% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 217 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 15723160 Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++ Search interval: Large | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
3 ply/XGR
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| XGID=aaBBBBB-A--A--------AA-bA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 74.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 74.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 25.55% (G:2.05% B:0.53%) | 25.44% (G:2.08% B:0.54%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.463 | +0.930 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.850 | ±0.034 (+0.816..+0.884) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.786 (-0.065) | ±0.038 (+0.748..+0.824) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.150) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 23.2% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 216 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 15723160 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 99.4% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 26.2 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
I would likely double this over the board expecting a lot of normal players will err and drop this. Here are a couple positions that are worth etching into memory if possible.
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| XGID=bBBBBBB-------------AA-bA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 79.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 79.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 20.11% (G:0.14% B:0.03%) | 20.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.596 | +1.179 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +1.000 | ±0.000 (+1.000..+1.000) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.047 (+0.047) | ±0.010 (+1.036..+1.057) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 15723160 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 50.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 0.9 second | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
 |
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| XGID=bBBBBBB-------------AA-Ab-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 78.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 78.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 21.27% (G:0.03% B:0.00%) | 21.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.574 | +1.138 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +1.000 | ±0.003 (+0.997..+1.003) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.018 (+0.018) | ±0.005 (+1.013..+1.024) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 15723160 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 50.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 13.3 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10