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Japan Open Final #3 - ROLLOUT with a live cube

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 17 October 2016, at 7:38 p.m.

In Response To: Japan Open Final #3 - ROLLOUT (Keene)

BIG blunder to cube this as winning chances are too low to give up the cube when recube vig is so high and when you can often cube later and still get a take when things go well.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 67
4 point match
pip: 76
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BB-CbF----B---------bbde-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:4:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.242% (G:2.756% B:0.050%) 63.403% (G:2.612% B:0.055%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.758% (G:0.435% B:0.002%) 36.597% (G:0.478% B:0.007%)
Cubeless Equities +0.2974 +0.7314
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.4398±0.0049 (+0.4350..+0.4447)
Double/Take:+0.2248 (-0.2151)±0.0062 (+0.2186..+0.2309)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.5602)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 21.7%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78623594
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 17 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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