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BGonline.org Forums
OLM Mon. May 12th
Posted By: neilkaz In Response To: OLM Mon. May 12th (Stick)
Date: Monday, 12 May 2008, at 2:52 p.m.
Tough play at this score for me. Of course if we stay we win more games and lose more G's. Let's determine our GC (gammon cost)..If we get G'd we have 50% and if we just lose a single we have 68% ME so the G costs 18% and if we win we have 100% gaining 32% vs losing a single.
So our G cost is 18/32 = 9/16 = 4.5/8 (you'll see why the further reduction of the fraction soon) ...if if we gained exactly 4.5% extra wins by staying, but lose more than 8% extra G's it will be best to hop out.
By staying we give Stick some bad shots and continued chances for more, but he'll just whack us with a bad shot as our board while decent, won't crush him yet. If we hop we almost never lose a G (maybe 1 to 2%) so if we stay do we lose 10% G's ? I think that might be the high end of the expected range...so
Lets say that it it reasonable to assume that we lose 8% extra G's if we stay.
So..now we need to determine if we win more than 4.5% extra games by staying.
If we hop, we have a reasonably standard bar pt holding game down 15 pips. Our board may not be perfect when a shot comes but it should be good. We have some wastage in the race, but Stick will develop some more than he has quite often. This looks like a 28% game if we hop (we'd be closer to 30% at this pip count if our board was pure).
So conservatively, can we win 33% if we stay ? I suspect we can do to Stick's bad rolls, and the awkwardness we cause him by staying if he doesn't blot. We aren't committed to staying forever, and the pip count is the same, and we may just hop later if we desire. If hit loose on the ace we only lose 1 pip if we enter and will still retain plenty of holding game chances.
So I think we gain 5% extra wins by staying vs 8% extra G's lost...
13/7 13/10 for me.
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