Casper's insight is one that I had not spotted. Usually one hangs on to a deep anchor at DMP because it maintains more contact and there is no need to think about running off the gammon. However, White's distribution here allows Blue to leave a checker on the 23pt to fend for itself, and so running off the 23pt actually gives greater shot equity.
For money, running off the 23pt loses too many gammons.
          
 
       
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 87 | | 1 point match | pip: 125
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BCBBB---------bdBbbbbBa-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/14 | eq: -0.677 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 16.16% (G:1.44% B:0.05%)
83.84% (G:19.51% B:0.13%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.680...-0.674) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 18/14 18/13 | eq: -0.710 (-0.033) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 14.52% (G:0.54% B:0.08%)
85.48% (G:11.90% B:0.30%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.713...-0.706) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 05 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 18/9 | eq: -0.713 (-0.036) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 14.35% (G:0.55% B:0.03%)
85.65% (G:16.95% B:0.93%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.716...-0.710) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 44 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
For money:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 87 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 125
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BCBBB---------bdBbbbbBa-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 18/14 18/13 | eq: -0.740 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 13.90% (G:0.66% B:0.01%)
86.10% (G:6.41% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.744...-0.736) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 56 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 18/9 | eq: -0.781 (-0.041) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 13.52% (G:0.56% B:0.01%)
86.48% (G:9.63% B:0.20%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.785...-0.777) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 22 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 23/14 | eq: -0.782 (-0.043) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 15.81% (G:1.50% B:0.04%)
84.19% (G:16.43% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.787...-0.778) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 10 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release