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Rollout surprise

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 16 December 2016, at 12:28 a.m.

In Response To: What does Stick think of the 22pt anchor? (Timothy Chow)

This is a rare example where the rollout says to break the anchor at GS but not to break the anchor for money.

Perhaps this is a counterexample to the Bold at Gammon Save hypothesis of 6stones, although 6stones was concerned with bold loose hits rather than bold anchor breaks.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 153 2 point match Crawford pip: 144 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ba-BBCB---A-C---g-c-bB---:0:0:1:62:1:0:1:2:10
Blue to play 62

1.	Rollout1	22/16 13/11	eq: +0.539
	Player: Opponent: 80.16% (G:28.91% B:6.38%) 19.84% (G:3.23% B:0.29%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.533...+0.545) - [100.0%] Duration: 16 minutes 56 seconds
2.	Rollout1	22/20 22/16	eq: +0.512 (-0.026)
	Player: Opponent: 79.31% (G:27.39% B:6.04%) 20.69% (G:3.70% B:0.46%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.506...+0.518) - [0.0%] Duration: 16 minutes 05 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/7 11/9	eq: +0.509 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 79.18% (G:34.08% B:8.13%) 20.82% (G:3.72% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.503...+0.516) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 38 seconds
4.	Rollout1	22/14	eq: +0.509 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 79.41% (G:29.15% B:5.72%) 20.59% (G:3.98% B:0.26%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.503...+0.515) - [0.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 10 seconds
5.	Rollout1	13/5	eq: +0.505 (-0.034)
	Player: Opponent: 78.93% (G:34.10% B:7.01%) 21.07% (G:3.69% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.499...+0.511) - [0.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 56 seconds
6.	Rollout1	22/16 11/9	eq: +0.492 (-0.046)
	Player: Opponent: 78.87% (G:30.34% B:6.69%) 21.13% (G:4.26% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.486...+0.499) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 45 seconds
7.	Rollout1	22/16 6/4	eq: +0.490 (-0.048)
	Player: Opponent: 78.55% (G:27.96% B:4.95%) 21.45% (G:4.04% B:0.58%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.484...+0.497) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 51 seconds
8.	Rollout1	13/7 6/4	eq: +0.490 (-0.049)
	Player: Opponent: 78.46% (G:31.35% B:6.84%) 21.54% (G:3.97% B:0.57%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.484...+0.496) - [0.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 39 seconds
9.	Rollout1	13/11 13/7	eq: +0.485 (-0.054)
	Player: Opponent: 78.04% (G:33.16% B:7.00%) 21.96% (G:3.78% B:0.31%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.479...+0.492) - [0.0%] Duration: 11 minutes 50 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---

For money:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 153 Unlimited Game pip: 144 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ba-BBCB---A-C---g-c-bB---:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 62

1.	Rollout1	13/7 11/9	eq: +0.785
	Player: Opponent: 80.20% (G:27.57% B:1.99%) 19.80% (G:3.80% B:0.18%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.778...+0.793) - [92.9%] Duration: 13 minutes 51 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/5	eq: +0.777 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 79.91% (G:27.38% B:1.92%) 20.09% (G:3.87% B:0.16%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.769...+0.785) - [6.6%] Duration: 13 minutes 32 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/11 13/7	eq: +0.772 (-0.014)
	Player: Opponent: 79.30% (G:28.30% B:2.01%) 20.70% (G:4.03% B:0.19%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.764...+0.780) - [0.5%] Duration: 12 minutes 40 seconds
4.	Rollout1	22/16 13/11	eq: +0.767 (-0.018)
	Player: Opponent: 80.72% (G:24.19% B:1.78%) 19.28% (G:3.73% B:0.14%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.760...+0.775) - [0.0%] Duration: 16 minutes 05 seconds
5.	Rollout1	13/7 6/4	eq: +0.758 (-0.028)
	Player: Opponent: 79.43% (G:26.71% B:1.97%) 20.57% (G:4.09% B:0.17%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.750...+0.765) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 20 seconds
6.	Rollout1	22/14	eq: +0.750 (-0.035)
	Player: Opponent: 79.99% (G:25.10% B:1.91%) 20.01% (G:4.54% B:0.20%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.742...+0.759) - [0.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 55 seconds
7.	Rollout1	11/5 6/4	eq: +0.746 (-0.040)
	Player: Opponent: 78.91% (G:26.92% B:2.02%) 21.09% (G:4.23% B:0.17%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.738...+0.753) - [0.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 13 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

Messages In This Thread

• What does Stick think of the 22pt anchor?
  Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 14 December 2016, at 10:37 p.m.
  • What does Stick think of the 22pt anchor?
    Karol Szczerek -- Thursday, 15 December 2016, at 6:00 a.m.
  • What does Stick think of the 22pt anchor?
    gudgen -- Thursday, 15 December 2016, at 2:26 p.m.
  • What does Stick think of the 22pt anchor?
    garyo -- Thursday, 15 December 2016, at 2:33 p.m.
  • What does Stick think of the 22pt anchor?
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 15 December 2016, at 3:41 p.m.
  • Rollout surprise
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 16 December 2016, at 12:28 a.m.