The rollout doesn't like the banana split but the balance between wins/gammons/backgammons is pretty delicate.
          
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 104 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 129
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BaBBBB-----bB--AaabbbbbAA:1:1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 31 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 16/13 | eq: -0.729 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 18.64% (G:2.43% B:0.06%)
81.36% (G:18.44% B:1.15%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.735...-0.723) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 40 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 5/2* | eq: -0.771 (-0.042) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 26.35% (G:10.68% B:0.31%)
73.65% (G:41.81% B:7.29%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.780...-0.762) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 22 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release
It's interesting to see what happens at some other scores. For example, suppose Blue is trailing 6a4a holding a 2-cube. XG 3-ply and 4-ply both recommend safety, but the rollout below favors the banana split. Pseudocubelessly, the banana split loses about 40% gammons, but rollout statistics indicate that Blue loses a gammon with the cube on 2 only about 1/3 of the time, and he gets in a recube to 4 about 40% of the time. (It seems that Blue doesn't quite have an immediate redouble after a dance, but it's close, and it's not a bad approximation to assume that he does.)
| | White is Player 2
score: 3
pip: 104 | | 7 point match | pip: 129
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BaBBBB-----bB--AaabbbbbAA:1:1:1:31:1:3:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 31 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 5/2* | eq: -0.677 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 26.79% (G:11.08% B:0.98%)
73.21% (G:40.43% B:19.57%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.687...-0.667) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 24 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 16/13 | eq: -0.745 (-0.069) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 18.88% (G:2.37% B:0.09%)
81.12% (G:18.58% B:3.20%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.752...-0.739) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 22 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2