OTB noting my opp's cubeless and gammonless TP AtS is 30% rather than 25% for money, I was happy to cube this. My opp passed quickly and for a moment I wondered if I should've cubed last roll as I'd lost my market. Then I came to my senses since no matter how many G's I win, my opp always has a take here if he can win 40% of the time. Clearly I felt he can win at least 35% so I then was happy to win a point.
In reality and as Weaver showed posting a similar position, my position isn't as good as I'd thought. I do have only 9 checkers in the zone and the 8 pt and 2 pt don't work that well together and I have 3 checkers back. My opp survives often enough to win at about 40% of the time.
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| XGID=-cBBa-B-B-A-dCa--b-d--AAA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:3:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 60.061% (G:32.038% B:7.530%) | 59.620% (G:31.643% B:14.530%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 39.939% (G:8.805% B:0.773%) | 40.380% (G:8.861% B:0.812%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.7239 | +1.0558 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.6414 | ±0.0186 (+0.6228..+0.6600) |
| Double/Take: | +0.6031 (-0.0383) | ±0.0225 (+0.5806..+0.6256) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.3586) | |
| Best Cube action: No double / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 8.8% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 78623594 Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 99.5% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2