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Neil's Paradox Position: Money Double but No Double at –3–3

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Monday, 19 December 2016, at 5:18 p.m.

In Response To: OTB and RO (neilkaz)

We have all been taught that you double earlier at –3–3 than for money. Exceptions can occur when the BG % is high. Neil posted the –3–3 rollout result. I am posting the money rollout result.

This position is no double at –3–3 but a double for money.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 196 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 156 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-cBBa-B-B-A-dCa--b-d--AAA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	60.12% (G:31.32% B:4.90%)	60.23% (G:31.29% B:4.89%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39.88% (G:8.72% B:0.41%)	39.77% (G:8.62% B:0.43%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.473	+0.952
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.608 (-0.012)	±0.010 (+0.598..+0.618)
Double/Take:	+0.620	±0.015 (+0.606..+0.635)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.380)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		91.1%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• 3 pt match cube action
  neilkaz -- Thursday, 15 December 2016, at 8:44 p.m.
  • 3 pt match cube action
    Casper Van der Tak -- Thursday, 15 December 2016, at 9:23 p.m.
  • OTB and RO
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 18 December 2016, at 4:49 p.m.
    • Neil's Paradox Position: Money Double but No Double at –3–3
      Paul Weaver -- Monday, 19 December 2016, at 5:18 p.m.
      • Neil's Paradox Position: Money Double but No Double at –3–3
        Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 20 December 2016, at 2:15 a.m.