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The 102% oxymoron

Posted By: mamabear
Date: Tuesday, 20 December 2016, at 6:42 p.m.

In Response To: The 102% oxymoron (Bob Koca)

Caution: This post may be of no interest to anyone not already posting in this thread. If you still have shopping to do, skip the next part.

Hmmm, I once again am unsure what is being asked in this thread, but I guess what I meant by "it", is "all the components of XG that go into making up the luck factor". That includes what it (oops! another possibly ambiguous antecedent!) thinks is actually lucky or not in each position it considers, which could be subject to change if every position were rolled out using decent settings, for all 21 possible rolls for every move in the match. Some of these rollouts would demonstrate that the original rolls were not ranked in the correct order for luckiness or lack thereof, and/or that the equity differences were "wrong"--meaning when bot plays bot, of course, since how is XG supposed to figure out any other meaning?

Rolling out a whole match would likely be as close to a useless exercise as we can find in backgammon, so there are two mental shortcuts that allow us to bypass the need: 1) Be lazy and say, "Well, the errors would probably cancel out." 2) Own up that the luck number is not a sharp and perfect mathematical point, but instead has fuzzy edges, sort of like exactly where electrons are, or something like that. Not something I worry about very often.

Messages In This Thread

• The 102% oxymoron
  gudgen -- Sunday, 18 December 2016, at 2:08 p.m.
  • The 102% oxymoron
    mamabear -- Monday, 19 December 2016, at 12:25 p.m.
    • The 102% oxymoron
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 19 December 2016, at 11:13 p.m.
    • The 102% oxymoron
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 19 December 2016, at 11:40 p.m.
      • The 102% oxymoron
        mamabear -- Tuesday, 20 December 2016, at 6:42 p.m.
        • The 102% oxymoron
          Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 21 December 2016, at 4:41 p.m.
          • The 102% oxymoron
            mamabear -- Wednesday, 21 December 2016, at 8:51 p.m.
            • +1 *NM*
              gudgen -- Friday, 23 December 2016, at 12:21 a.m.
            • 102% oxymoron
              Bob Koca -- Friday, 23 December 2016, at 2:25 a.m.
              • 102% oxymoron
                mamabear -- Friday, 23 December 2016, at 12:45 p.m.
    • The 102% oxymoron
      mamabear -- Friday, 23 December 2016, at 12:42 p.m.