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How to estimate winning chances

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 22 December 2016, at 4:37 a.m.

In Response To: How to estimate winning chances (Timothy Chow)

It doesn't seem too hard to break the rolls down.

  • Rolls that win immediately: [66 55 44 65 64] 7/36

  • Rolls that get by the midpoint and if missed win (more or less): [63 62 61 54 53 52 51 43 42 41 32 31 22] 25 rolls. On average I'll estimate we're hit 13/36 or 36% of the time. That means we win 16 of those 25 games.

  • Rolls that don't get too far at all: [33 11 21] We're hit just over 15/36 immediately. Let's just split these games since sometimes we leave a repeater.

Overall that comes to us winning 25/36 games. Out of the games we're hit I bet we're still able to win 1/11 pulling us to 26/36 games or 72%. The take point is the equity of 3a 7a since if we take we put the match on the line. 3a 7a is around 23% so the take is clear and it certainly seems volatile enough and close enough to the window to double so DT.

Stick

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