[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

How to estimate winning chances

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Thursday, 22 December 2016, at 3:33 p.m.

In Response To: How to estimate winning chances (Timothy Chow)

This doesn't look like brain surgery to me.

If you higher than a 9 you win instantly. That's 7 rolls (3-3 doesn't work).

On most of the rest of the rolls you leave a single shot, and let's say that you leave an average of 15 numbers that hit, so you lose 42 percent of the remaining 29 rolls, or you win 58 percent of the remaining 29 rolls, so that's about 17 rolls. So you win 24 times by not getting hit. If you get hit, you win another one or two times, so I would call it 25.5 wins out of 36 or around 70 percent.

I would bet that's close.

Now, estimating gammons would be very hard for me.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.