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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 23 December 2016, at 4:58 p.m.

In Response To: How to estimate winning chances (Timothy Chow)





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 121
7 point match
pip: 47
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-ECCC-a-----b--Aabcbbb----:2:1:1:00:0:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.25% (G:16.04% B:0.11%) 71.27% (G:17.84% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.75% (G:1.74% B:0.05%) 28.73% (G:1.31% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities +0.555 +0.811
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.583 (-0.229)±0.003 (+0.580..+0.586)
Redouble/Take:+0.811±0.004 (+0.807..+0.815)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.189)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 33 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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