Stick makes the decision sound easier than it is. See the rollout and Variants 1 to 3 below.
Sebastian asked about the cube location; see Variant 4 below. If Blue owns the cube, then the reason he doesn't double before the roll is that he's TG. By playing 5/2 5/1 he gets an extremely efficient cube if White dances and minimizes his losses when White enters.
        
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 147 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 66
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aBCCDBa-----c---bb-c-c-A--:1:-1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/20 5/1 | eq: +0.137 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.05% (G:31.88% B:0.06%)
44.95% (G:6.58% B:0.21%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.128...+0.146) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 26 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 5/2 5/1 | eq: +0.080 (-0.057) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.08% (G:27.83% B:0.05%)
46.92% (G:2.54% B:0.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.071...+0.088) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 53 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release
Variant 1
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 145 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 66
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aBCCDBa-----c---b-bc-c-A--:1:-1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 5/2 5/1 | eq: +0.205 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.92% (G:29.80% B:0.05%)
43.08% (G:2.22% B:0.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.197...+0.214) - [62.1%]
Duration: 10 minutes 15 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/20 5/1 | eq: +0.204 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.35% (G:32.28% B:0.06%)
42.65% (G:6.30% B:0.19%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.195...+0.212) - [37.9%]
Duration: 9 minutes 44 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release
Variant 2
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 150 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 67
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aBCCDBa-----c---bb-cc---A-:1:-1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 5/2 5/1 | eq: -0.204 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.90% (G:23.29% B:0.04%)
56.10% (G:2.95% B:0.06%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.214...-0.195) - [64.5%]
Duration: 12 minutes 55 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/21 5/1 | eq: -0.207 (-0.003) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.32% (G:24.66% B:0.04%)
54.68% (G:7.14% B:0.21%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.217...-0.197) - [35.5%]
Duration: 12 minutes 42 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release
Variant 3
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 150 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 66
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aBCCDBa-----c---bb-cc--A--:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 5/3 5/1 | eq: -0.177 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.53% (G:23.85% B:0.04%)
55.47% (G:2.81% B:0.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.187...-0.168) - [99.7%]
Duration: 12 minutes 28 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/21 5/1 | eq: -0.196 (-0.019) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.24% (G:24.31% B:0.04%)
54.76% (G:7.12% B:0.19%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.206...-0.187) - [0.3%]
Duration: 11 minutes 41 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release
Variant 4
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 147 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 66
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aBCCDBa-----c---bb-c-c-A--:1:1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 5/2 5/1 | eq: +0.539 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.27% (G:27.36% B:0.05%)
46.73% (G:2.14% B:0.10%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 23/20 5/1 | eq: +0.450 (-0.089) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.29% (G:31.29% B:0.06%)
44.71% (G:5.83% B:0.20%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release
After 5/2 5/1, dance:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 147 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 59
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aCDCD-a-----c---bb-c-c-A--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 63.14% (G:39.48% B:0.06%) | 63.28% (G:39.37% B:0.06%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 36.86% (G:1.79% B:0.04%) | 36.72% (G:1.79% B:0.03%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.640 | +1.283 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.765 (-0.217) | |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.982 | |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.018) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release