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Rollout for money and at 6a5a

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 1 January 2017, at 8:40 p.m.

In Response To: Doubling from the bar (Timothy Chow)

This position actually arose for me at 6a5a. I failed to double, which would have gotten the bot's seal of approval for money, but not ATS.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 110 Unlimited Game pip: 121 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBbBBB-B--aa--B--db-abbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	59.71% (G:20.80% B:0.94%)	59.93% (G:20.44% B:0.92%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	40.29% (G:14.83% B:0.19%)	40.07% (G:14.69% B:0.19%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.261	+0.526
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.280	±0.010 (+0.271..+0.290)
Double/Take:	+0.228 (-0.052)	±0.016 (+0.212..+0.244)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.720)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6.3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 17 minutes 28 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

---

6a5a:

		White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 110 7 point match pip: 121 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBbBBB-B--aa--B--db-abbA:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	59.72% (G:21.06% B:0.92%)	59.87% (G:20.44% B:0.90%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	40.28% (G:15.03% B:0.23%)	40.13% (G:14.72% B:0.26%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.285	+0.603
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.331 (-0.113)	±0.011 (+0.321..+0.342)
Double/Take:	+0.445	±0.015 (+0.430..+0.459)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.555)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 19 minutes 25 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Doubling from the bar
  Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 31 December 2016, at 3:17 p.m.
  • Doubling from the bar
    Wolfgang -- Saturday, 31 December 2016, at 4:06 p.m.
    • Doubling from the bar
      Karol Szczerek -- Saturday, 31 December 2016, at 5:27 p.m.
  • Rollout for money and at 6a5a
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 1 January 2017, at 8:40 p.m.
  • Doubling from the bar
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 3 January 2017, at 3:06 p.m.