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Rollout and variant

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 9 January 2017, at 11:16 p.m.

In Response To: 2a7a holding game cube (Timothy Chow)

Looks like I chose the wrong moment to post this and also chose an insufficiently click-baitish title.

Anyway, I wasn't sure that this was a take and I thought gammons were low. That usually points to a double ATS. I was surprised to see how easy a take the bot thought this was. Given that, it is perhaps not surprising that White's straggler gives Blue enough gammons that he doesn't want to double and kill them.

In the variant, I have advanced White's straggler a pip, and this of course reduces Blue's gammon wins, but more importantly, it also reduces White's wins by more than I expected.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
7 point match
pip: 116
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---abCCCB-B-bB---a-bbcb---:0:0:1:00:5:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.09% (G:10.81% B:0.43%) 78.01% (G:17.60% B:0.54%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.91% (G:1.84% B:0.05%) 21.99% (G:1.96% B:0.07%)
Cubeless Equities +0.728 +1.619
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.922±0.011 (+0.911..+0.933)
Double/Take:+0.869 (-0.053)±0.020 (+0.850..+0.889)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.078)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 28.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 24 minutes 41 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Variant:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 137
7 point match
pip: 116
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----cCCCB-B-bB---a-bbcb---:0:0:1:00:5:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.45% (G:4.33% B:0.05%) 80.49% (G:6.39% B:0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.55% (G:1.05% B:0.02%) 19.51% (G:1.12% B:0.05%)
Cubeless Equities +0.652 +1.760
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.946 (-0.054)±0.009 (+0.937..+0.955)
Double/Take:+1.146 (+0.146)±0.016 (+1.130..+1.162)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 23 minutes 14 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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