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hum! how to evaluate such position

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 14 May 2008, at 12:11 a.m.

In Response To: hum! how to evaluate such position (Alex213)

First place we go is to the race. If this was a no contact position what would the a straight racing cube look like.

Keith count says:

White - 67 + 3 + 1 + 1 = 72/7 = 10, 72+10 = 82

Blue - 80 + 2 = 82

Based on the race alone it's a pass, but not a huge one. No we're off to the contact part of the game, who does that favor? Blue of course. Closed board and no reason to break it next turn, any contact Blue will be happy. White has immediate blotting numbers, 65, 64. On top of those 4 numbers there are a shit ton of numbes that don't play pretty. White has no ammo to attack that lone blot which will rest comfortably on his 5pt awaiting a shot.

White is likely to have to clear or try to clear within' 3 turns, and in the midst of all of this, he may wreck his board, further wasting his race lead and making it impossible for any attacking sequences on his part. Looking at how all White's numbers play you get a sense of how ugly the position really is. Any 6x puts him in danger of leaving a shot next turn not only with the non clearing 6s but brutal rolls like 51. Basically any 5x does the exact same thing. (except 54 which clears the 6pt, again, shattering his race lead and leaving his board in shambles) 4s play decent, aside from the already mentioned 64 & 54, leaving only 6 good rolls which still don't get him out of the woods. (I'm excluding doubles, of course most doubles are excellent for White in this position, though 55 & 66 do leave a shot!)

White's best *mediocre* rolls we could fairly say are small numbers, perhaps a 21 or 31 making the ace point, which are in turn piss poor for the race, which is the main reason he doubled. Overall I'm not confident enough to say this isn't a double, in fact I believe I would double OtB, but your rollout is too short & sloppy to draw any conclusions. I'll go with double and simple take - I'll post a rollout in a bit.

Stick

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