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money game checker play

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 3 February 2017, at 11:53 p.m.

In Response To: money game checker play (tuvi)

My starting point for analyzing these positions is to oversimplify by assuming that (1) if I don't hit then it's a race and (2) if I hit then I win if not hit back but I lose if hit back. Then I make some adjustments based on how far I think these assumptions are from being true.

If I hit then White has 17 return shots. I think it's not a bad approximation to assume that we lose if hit back and win if not, but we also have to account for gammon losses. Since White owns the cube, she typically wins a gammon only if she stays TG until the end. Maybe 1/3 of the hits lead to a gammon win? So effectively that means she wins about 2/3 of the time.

If I don't hit then White is certainly ahead in the race, but she has to leap the prime, and even then she might get hit. If I approximate by assuming that she wins 80% if she rolls an immediate 4 or 6 and loses about half the time otherwise, then that means winning about 2/3 of the time.

This analysis suggests that it's a close decision. I think I would hit OTB.

Messages In This Thread

• money game checker play
  tuvi -- Friday, 3 February 2017, at 7:12 p.m.
  • money game checker play
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 3 February 2017, at 11:53 p.m.