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Bob got my point

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 16 May 2008, at 4:14 a.m.

In Response To: Bob got my point (Chuck Bower)

The ratio of aces to live cards is higher in this situation than if HU. It might be a small effect but I doubt I get a straight answer on that if few of us agree that it's not random.

Chuck, I think you could (1) make a supposition of the minimum hand that each of the seven players who folded would have opened with (2) figure out which hands they didn't have (3) and then figure out which cards if any are, as a result, are more likely to be in the Big Blind's hand.

I think you'd find that the effect, if any, is small. Especially in the situation you posited -- first hand of a sit'n'go.

If you don't suppose anything about the seven players' opening standards, there's no way their folding can tell you anything at all. So you have to suppose something. If all the folders are using the SNG strategy suggested (and not entirely unseriously) by Patti Beadles ...

One very viable SNG strategy is to fall asleep and fold everything (or very nearly everything) for the first three or four rounds.

... seven folds won't have told you much, except maybe that none of the players had AA KK QQ JJ AKs AK or AQs -- again, that's a (overly tight) guess, but you have to start guessing somewhere. If that was the range of playable hands for all seven players, then any AQ AJ AT A9 A8 A7 A6 A5 A4 A3 and A2 hands held by the seven players would have folded. So then, what does seven folds tell you about the BB hand?

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