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Bob got my point

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Friday, 16 May 2008, at 4:49 a.m.

In Response To: Bob got my point (Daniel Murphy)

I agree with everything here.

You are dealt 10-3. Call the probability that BB holds a random hand P. The first seven players fold. The probability that BB holds a random hand, given that the first seven players have folded, is no longer P.

The net effect is that the BB likely has a stronger hand than he otherwise would. Suppose that other players will fold unless they are dealt AA. Consider the scenario where two players in front of you call--the probability that BB holds AA is now 0. If only one player in front of you calls, the probability that BB holds AA is very much reduced, compared with the scenario where everyone in front of you folds.

Of course, the fact that all the players in front of you fold gives you good reason to believe that you have a good chance to win the pot, not because you are concerned about the strength of BB's hand (which is stronger than otherwise), but because the rest of the table is so weak that they aren't even playing.

Anyway, considering that you could literally do worse than to fold every hand of an SNG, trying to steal in this situation is probably a bad idea.

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