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Random blitz cube

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Thursday, 23 February 2017, at 6:05 a.m.

In Response To: Random blitz cube (Timothy Chow)

With such a racing lead and strong board, I think White has a take. I think he has about 30%.

Although I can see some dramatic scenarios, where White enters and breaks, and Blue picks up another checker for gammon, I think the overall gammons for Blue are not that high, probably about 1/3.5 of his wins. I'd assume similar ratio for White. That gives me eq of .4 (wins) + .12 (net gammons) - .1 (cube vig), x 2 = 0.84 after take.

The double is here for sure. We loose the market if we build the 7 or 2, if white enters&breaks, if we roll a big double. Probably also after a non-constructive roll and White dance.

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