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ATS and money rollouts

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 5 March 2017, at 6:01 p.m.

In Response To: Hit or run? Note the score (Timothy Chow)

I thought this one was nice because of the dramatic difference in the ATS and money rollouts.

I really should roll this out longer so that we can get an accurate estimate from XG's Rollout Statistics how often White wins an undoubled gammon ATS.





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 121
7 point match
pip: 131
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BaBBB-B-----Abc-bCc--d-A-:0:0:1:65:2:5:0:7:10
Blue to play 65

1.Rollout118/12 7/2* eq: +0.337
Player:
Opponent:
51.84% (G:20.20% B:0.20%)
48.16% (G:16.69% B:2.88%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.322...+0.352) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 06 seconds
2.Rollout124/13eq: +0.178 (-0.158)
Player:
Opponent:
52.89% (G:11.26% B:0.13%)
47.11% (G:6.70% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.169...+0.188) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 38 seconds
3.Rollout113/2* eq: +0.068 (-0.269)
Player:
Opponent:
48.75% (G:14.40% B:0.16%)
51.25% (G:12.79% B:1.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.055...+0.081) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 13 seconds
4.Rollout118/7eq: +0.064 (-0.273)
Player:
Opponent:
49.45% (G:11.64% B:0.15%)
50.55% (G:10.62% B:0.70%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.053...+0.076) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 44 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 121
Unlimited Game
pip: 131
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BaBBB-B-----Abc-bCc--d-A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 65

1.Rollout124/13eq: +0.156
Player:
Opponent:
53.48% (G:10.53% B:0.11%)
46.52% (G:6.12% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.147...+0.165) - [100.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 26 seconds
2.Rollout118/12 7/2* eq: +0.113 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
52.20% (G:19.43% B:0.22%)
47.80% (G:15.65% B:1.25%)
Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.097...+0.129) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 56 seconds
3.Rollout118/7eq: -0.001 (-0.157)
Player:
Opponent:
49.44% (G:12.17% B:0.19%)
50.56% (G:9.90% B:0.34%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.013...+0.011) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 11 seconds
4.Rollout113/2* eq: -0.002 (-0.158)
Player:
Opponent:
49.10% (G:14.80% B:0.17%)
50.90% (G:12.10% B:0.46%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.016...+0.012) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 59 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

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