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Best play 0.032 (XG++) better than 2nd choice: which play?
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Best play 0.032 (XG++) better than 2nd choice: which play? (leobueno)
Date: Thursday, 23 March 2017, at 3:05 p.m.
I know at a normal score or dmp I would play 13/11 13/7. Here are the reasons:
- We are way up in the race and given that we'd like to convert this at some point into a straight race
- The opponent has a stronger board than us
- In playing 13/11 13/7 we leave a blot in the outfield that is protected by the opp's own inner board blot. In other words, he can't hit and cover
That being said hitting two, 7/1* 6/4*, certainly has some points in its favor also.
- We have 11 men in the zone. More than enough to make a dent in blitzing if our opponent should happen to roll poorly from the bar.
- By hitting two we are, much like the other play, protected by the opp's inner board blot. When we get hit we have a shot back. (almost all the time, unlike the other play where it is all the time)
- Getting hit with an ace isn't a big deal. Sure, we'd rather be missed but if we're hit with ace/X and are able to enter and cover I wouldn't scoff at that exchange.
- We are a little stacked up and we would be hitting from those very stacks.
- The score. Hitting two certainly wins more gammons (and also loses more) but I'd be willing to bet it wins more in comparison. The gammon value on a 2 cube at the score is highly elevated for both players but should swing the double hit to being better at this score than at a normal score.
Given all that I don't know what I'd play at the score especially since you noted the error was so small.
Stick
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