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my first but not last blunder from Cleveland--what would you do and why?

Posted By: Casper Van der Tak
Date: Friday, 24 March 2017, at 12:00 p.m.

In Response To: my first but not last blunder from Cleveland--what would you do and why? (Phil Simborg)

I'd start with a gammon count. White needs at least 53 pips to bear a checker off (11 crossovers). Blue has 63 pips and needs 17 crossover. Even with Blue on roll and discounting the impacts of hits, White is a clear favorite in the gammon race.

The deuce point game gives White about 20% winning chances if played to the end. The gammon price is about 1 with the cube in the middle. Do you win this gammon about 20% of the time? Seems a stretch (I would count is as before rolling, White needs 7.5 rolls to get off the gammon, and Blue 9.5 rolls to bear off, discounting the impacts of hits).

Is there immediate danger? Yes, 54 and 65. So cube.

If you bring the checkers from Blue's 7 in, say as spares on the 5 and 4, then I'd roll.

Messages In This Thread

• my first but not last blunder from Cleveland--what would you do and why?
  Phil Simborg -- Friday, 24 March 2017, at 11:12 a.m.
  • my first but not last blunder from Cleveland--what would you do and why?
    Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 24 March 2017, at 12:00 p.m.