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Do you or don't you?

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Sunday, 26 March 2017, at 9:41 p.m.

In Response To: Do you or don't you? (Timothy Chow)

I guess top safe play is 24/22 23/22. On the basis that a primed 22pt. holding game is mostly a pass, and opp being 1-2 rolls away from this, I guess my chances after this move are about 25%. Other safe plays might be close in win%, but sacrifice too many gammons - eliminate those. Gammons after 24/22 23/22? Pretty low, obviously, I guess in the 5-10% department, say about 7%.

The hit looks promising. He's got 10 rolls that don't hit and don't let him run past our bar point. I like my chances going forward from there. If he hits, we might fall back to a holding game or a backgame. We're behind in the race, and attacking is thematic. I feel like we get about 5% wins more. The gammon losses shoot up though. We got 5 blots and no board. I'd give him at least 1/3 gammons (1/3 of his wins as gammons), which is about 24%. Our gammons might be maybe +1-2%.

So the hit yields 5% wins at the cost of 15%+ net gammons. Too much.

24/22 23/22.

Messages In This Thread

• Do you or don't you?
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 26 March 2017, at 9:03 p.m.
  • Do you or don't you?
    Igor -- Sunday, 26 March 2017, at 9:31 p.m.
  • Do you or don't you?
    Karol Szczerek -- Sunday, 26 March 2017, at 9:41 p.m.
  • Do you or don't you?
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 26 March 2017, at 10:49 p.m.
    • Do you or don't you?
      Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 27 March 2017, at 7:37 a.m.
  • Rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 27 March 2017, at 11:32 p.m.
  • Do you or don't you?
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 4 April 2017, at 2:03 p.m.