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BGonline.org Forums
OLM Sun. May 18th
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: OLM Sun. May 18th (Ian Dunstan)
Date: Sunday, 18 May 2008, at 1:22 p.m.
I thought hitting 15/9* was right now, and hitting more blots may be good in the future, but I haven't committed now to hit all future blots. Each turn will present a new problem of whether sending another checker back hurts or helps The Opponent's game. Will we have and be able to keep a full prime to contain him? If we don't hit, is he likely to completely crash? (If the crash isn't complete -- say, he ends up with three or four low homeboard points still made -- such games win more often than one might think.)
In this particular position Stick has the 21 and 24 points. Offhand I think (1) the more checkers sent to his 21 point the merrier; probably 15 checkers on the 21 point is worse (for him) than 10 on the 21 point and 4 or 5 checkers on his ace and deuce points. If we hit now and he enters on the 24 or 22 point, I may be less likely to hit one (or two) more next roll. (2) I'd anticipate that we'll rather hit than not the checker on his 6 point be sent back -- but again, waitn'n'see.
Stick's 1-4 anchors don't give him much of a backgame. I see it as an acepoint game -- "excellently" timed no matter what we do -- and the upcoming problems for us will be to decide which moves give Stick's acepoint game the least power.
If he had a decent backgame (1-2 1-3 2-3 2-4 1-2-3 1-2-4 1-3-4 3-4) and he had "8,9 (maybe 10) men" back already, I'd probably think we'd already hit too many checkers. But again, it depends on the position.
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