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Baseball by the Book - You're the manager

Posted By: Dave
Date: Sunday, 18 May 2008, at 1:48 p.m.

In Response To: Baseball by the Book - You're the manager (Stick)

I think the conventional wisdom is that a runner on second puts him in "scoring" position, i.e., any base hit into the outfield will score him as opposed to leaving him on first which will require two base hits (or a long double and a fast runner). With two outs the runner on second will be aggressive with his lead-off and his running (giving himself a chance to get back to second if needed) further increasing his chances of scoring on a hit single.

I think recent statistical work in baseball has called this into question. Having a runner on first with one out produces more runs than a runner on second with two outs but I don't have a source for that nor do I know which is more likely to produce just the one run needed to win. It's an interesting question that has a kind of backgammon parallel where one needs to consider the likelihood of gammons in a position in order to properly evaluate checker and cube play. Do the increase in chances for extra base hits (run-scoring doubles, triples, home runs) with two batters plus the chances of two batters getting a single overtake the chances one batter has of getting an outfield hit (minus the chance of a successful bunt)? Might teams also recalculate based on the particular players involved?

Dave

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