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Do, or do not. There is no "try"

Posted By: Keene
Date: Monday, 3 April 2017, at 11:45 p.m.

In Response To: Do, or do not. There is no "try" (Timothy Chow)

So... by my reckoning, what we need here is a little METty calculation. Saving the BG is about 81% match equity, getting bg'd is about 69% (or 69.5? this may be utterly critical!!). So, whatever play blue makes here must not give up that 12 or 12.5% equity.

Staying, the chances you get a shot and hit it, immediately are 11/36 * 10/36, or 110/1296, about 8.something%. Minus whatever BG's you lose anyway because you cannot get off it this roll, fully. so, that's 5/36 anyway. That nets out around 31/36 * 110/1296, which is less than the critical 12 or 12.5%. By my rubbish calculations, you must therefore stay.

What to do with the roll then? Get one man out for sure, and likely 19/15, and 12/10 for the deuce.

K

Note: I may well have butchered the math. Probably did.

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